Opponents That Play A Lot of Man
Buffalo (Week 8): Technically, the Bills play a lot of Cover 4 zone but its style of zone converts to man against "inside" routes often run by tight ends. It also plays its share of press coverage.
San Francisco (Week 11): The 49ers like to play press coverage.
New York Jets (Weeks 12 & 16): Darrelle Revis...
Baltimore (Week 14): A lot of man on the outside.
Denver (Week 15)
Opponents That Play A Lot of Zone
Pittsburgh (Week 7): Although some of these options have higher upside based on the defensive scheme, I wouldn't downgrade Bennett, Hogan, or Blount when they're not facing those units.
Seattle (Week 10): Although Seattle is known for Richard Sherman coverage skills, the Seahawks are essentially a zone defense.
L.A. (Week 13): Gregg Williams will use his share of press man to blitz defenses but he also likes to place his safeties in disguised zones.
Optimal Pats vs. Man:
Martellus Bennett: The Browns played a lot of man coverage and Bennett's size poses difficulties for linebackers and safeties at the catch-point and after the catch. The two tight end alignments and play-action also give Bennett big-play opportunities because the opposing corner, safety, or linebacker has to honor the run.
Chris Hogan: Not as fast as Edelman, Hogan is a better receiver at the catch-point on downfield targets. He's a physical receiver and tracks the ball better against tight coverage. Because he's slower than Edelman, he's often the target on play-action deep routes involving those heavy run sets with two tight ends.
LeGarrette Blount: Defenses are more likely to honor the run in two tight end sets with him in the backfield in comparison to James White. Blount is also a decent screen receiver and an excellent draw runner. He'll have some big runs when Brady and company break the huddle in heavy sets with tight ends to the same side but then shift pre-snap to a shotgun look with both tight ends split from the formation as receivers on each side.
Optimal Pats vs. Zone:
Julian Edelman: Mostly a slot receiver, Edelman performs better when a cover corner isn't assigned to him. When Brady can run play-action and find Edelman behind the linebackers on deep crossers or in-cuts that let him work across the field with a running start, he's in for big days. Cincinnati rushed four and dropped seven with regularity this weekend and it was Edelman who earned a team-high 7 targets among the wide receivers.
James White: White had some moments against the Browns two weeks ago, but he was at his best against the zone-oriented Bengals. He earned nine targets and caught eight of them for 47 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brady often targeted White under the linebackers in the right flat for nice gains, including one of White's touchdowns. He's just quick enough to do damage. If Dion Lewis returns to form, substitute his name here.
Danny Amendola: Amendola is a terrific zone option when healthy. If you need a bye-week desperation flier, you can do worse than Amendola when the Patriots face zone-heavy defensive units.
Week 7's Results versus Pittsburgh:
"Don't Downgrade Blount, Bennett, or Hogan": Well, 1-for-3 there. Blount was huge in this game against a weakened Steelers' defense. The other two were clearly on the periphery in the passing game, which actually feed into my theory they are better "man" matchups.
"Gronkowski is matchup-proof based on defensive type": You didn't need me to tell you that one.
"Edelman performs better when a corner isn't assigned to him": The slot performer had 60 yards on 9 catches, riddling the middle of the Pittsburgh zone. LB Lawrence Timmons was no match.
"James White targeted in flats" : Screens often occur in the flats and White's 2-32-1 stat line was decent bye-week production if you have to play the matchups.
Next week, look for more from Bennett, Hogan, and more from Blount and Gronkowski. We'll see if the theory holds up.
